Brian Gongol
Please note: This page contains three data sets. The first is from September 1, 2005. The second is from September 3, 2005. The third is from September 11, 2005. The final set is the most comprehensive, though no map has been generated yet due to the size of the data block collected.
Data Set #1: September 1, 2005
Blue dots represent cities reporting significant numbers of evacuees as of September 1, 2005; gray dots represent nearby cities not reporting significant clusters of evacuees
The sheer magnitude of the evacuation of New Orleans can be masked by the way in which the evacuees are spread out over an enormous portion of the United States. The magnitude of the diaspora is only apparent when the local reports from the far-flung places those evacuees settled are consolidated onto a map:
Major Cities Reporting a Significant Number of Evacuees/Refugees from New Orleans as of September 1, 2005:
- San Antonio, TX
- Houston, TX
- Dallas, TX
- Waco, TX
- Little Rock, AR
- Branson, MO
- St. Louis, MO
- Chicago, IL
- Indianapolis, IN
- Lexington, KY
- Nashville, TN
- Memphis, TN
- Chattanooga, TN
- Atlanta, GA
- Jacksonville, FL
- Tallahassee, FL
Major media in cities like Oklahoma City, Kansas City, Des Moines, Cincinnati, Charleston, Raleigh, and Columbia didn't feature stories about large numbers of evacuees settling in those communities by September 1st.
Data Set #2: September 3, 2005
The diaspora expanded its perimeter into the weekend. By September 3rd, the following cities were reporting significant evacuee arrivals or were implementing plans to accommodate large numbers of displaced people:
Major Cities Reporting a Significant Number of Evacuees/Refugees from New Orleans as of September 3, 2005:
- Midland/Odessa, TX
- El Paso, TX
- Amarillo, TX
- Lubbock, TX
- Tucson, AZ
- Oklahoma City, OK
- Tulsa, OK
- Wichita, KS
- Topeka, KS
- Kansas City, MO
- Denver, CO
- Salt Lake City, UT
- Omaha, NE
- Lincoln, NE
- Des Moines, IA
- Minneapolis, MN
- Cincinnati, OH
- Philadelphia, PA
- Charlotte, NC
- Raleigh, NC
- Greenville, SC
- Columbia, SC
Data Set #3: September 11, 2005
Distribution of Evacuees By September 11, 2005
Site | State | Planned | Already | ||
Baton Rouge | LA | 0 | 200000 | Link | |
Arkansas (state) | AR | 0 | 50000 | Link | |
Birmingham | AL | 0 | 35000 | Link | |
Dallas | TX | 0 | 17000 | Link | |
San Antonio | TX | 0 | 13000 | Link | |
Memphis | TN | 0 | 12000 | Link | |
Atlanta | GA | 25000 | 10000 | Link | Link |
Brownsville | TX | 0 | 10000 | Link | |
Houston | TX | 0 | 10000 | Link | |
Nashville | TN | 0 | 6500 | Link | |
Shreveport | LA | 0 | 6000 | Link | |
Missouri (state) | MO | 0 | 5800 | Link | |
Orlando | FL | 0 | 5000 | Link | |
Austin | TX | 0 | 4000 | Link | |
Illinois (state) | IL | 0 | 4000 | Link | |
Galveston | TX | 0 | 3000 | Link | |
Chicago | IL | 0 | 2300 | Link | |
Los Angeles | CA | 2000 | 2000 | Link | |
Pensacola | FL | 0 | 2000 | Link | |
St. Louis | MO | 0 | 1800 | Link | |
Oklahoma (state) | OK | 0 | 1700 | Link | |
Tulsa | OK | 0 | 1130 | Link | |
Louisville | KY | 500 | 1000 | Link | |
Kansas City | MO | 0 | 1000 | Link | |
Charlotte | NC | 0 | 830 | Link | |
Las Vegas | NV | 200 | 800 | Link | |
Savannah | GA | 5000 | 700 | Link | |
Washington | DC | 0 | 700 | Link | Link |
Springfield | MO | 0 | 700 | Link | |
Detroit | MI | 0 | 600 | Link | |
Salt Lake City | UT | 0 | 590 | Link | |
San Diego | CA | 0 | 550 | Link | |
Huntsville | AL | 0 | 500 | Link | |
Iowa (state) | IA | 0 | 500 | Link | |
San Francisco | CA | 0 | 400 | Link | |
Raleigh | NC | 0 | 350 | Link | |
Jackson | MS | 0 | 350 | Link | |
Columbia | SC | 0 | 330 | Link | |
Columbia | SC | 0 | 300 | Link | |
Knoxville | TX | 0 | 300 | Link | |
El Paso | TX | 0 | 280 | Link | |
Battle Creek | MI | 0 | 280 | Link | |
Denver | CO | 500 | 250 | Link | |
Boston | MA | 0 | 250 | Link | |
Phoenix | AZ | 0 | 220 | Link | |
Baltimore | MD | 0 | 200 | Link | |
Richmond | VA | 0 | 200 | Link | |
Milwaukee | WI | 0 | 200 | Link | |
Colorado Springs | CO | 0 | 200 | Link | |
Albuquerque | NM | 0 | 200 | Link | |
Omaha | NE | 0 | 170 | Link | |
Sarasota | FL | 0 | 150 | Link | |
Rochester | NY | 0 | 150 | Link | |
Cape Cod | MA | 120 | 110 | Link | |
Greenville | SC | 0 | 110 | Link | |
Omaha | NE | 500 | 100 | Link | |
Fort Myers | WA | 25 | 100 | Link | |
Newport News | VA | 0 | 100 | Link | |
Jacksonville | FL | 0 | 70 | Link | |
Minneapolis | MN | 500 | 60 | Link | |
Chattanooga | TN | 0 | 50 | Link | |
Urbana-Champaign | IL | 0 | 50 | Link | |
Tucson | AZ | 0 | 50 | Link | |
Philadelphia | PA | 0 | 40 | Link | |
Buffalo | NY | 0 | 40 | Link | |
Waco | TX | 0 | 30 | Link | |
South Bend | IN | 0 | 30 | Link | |
Indianapolis | IN | 100 | 25 | Link | |
Des Moines | IA | 0 | 20 | Link | |
Dayton | OH | 0 | 20 | Link | |
Grand Rapids | MI | 0 | 20 | Link | |
Toledo | OH | 0 | 20 | Link | |
Montana (state) | MT | 0 | 20 | Link | |
Madison | WI | 0 | 15 | Link | |
Cincinnati | OH | 0 | 15 | Link | |
Scranton | PA | 0 | 10 | Link | |
Spokane | WA | 0 | 10 | ||
Roanoke | VA | 3000 | 0 | Link | |
Lexington | KY | 500 | 0 | Link | |
Pittsburgh | PA | 300 | 0 | Link | |
New York City | NY | 200 | 0 | Link | |
Sacramento | CA | 200 | 0 | Link | |
Syracuse | NY | 150 | 0 | Link | |
Fort Myers | FL | 30 | 0 | Link | |
Johnstown | PA | 15 | 0 | Link | |
Albany | NY | 0 | 0 | ||
Burlington | VT | 0 | 0 | ||
Hartford | CT | 0 | 0 | ||
Portland | ME | 0 | 0 | ||
Providence | RI | 0 | 0 | Link | |
Bristol | VA | 0 | 0 | Link | |
Greensboro | NC | 0 | 0 | ||
Miami | FL | 0 | 0 | ||
Palm Beach | FL | 0 | 0 | ||
Cedar Rapids | IA | 0 | 0 | ||
Evansville | IN | 0 | 0 | ||
Wichita | KS | 0 | 0 | Link | |
Portland | OR | 0 | 0 | Link | |
Columbus | OH | 0 | 0 | Link | |
Green Bay | WI | 0 | 0 | ||
Fresno | CA | 0 | 0 | Link |
The approximate sum of the confirmed values above is about 416,000 people -- which, given the magnitude of the disaster and resulting diaspora, is probably the most reasonable estimate possible based on the available information.
Understanding the Importance
The United States simply doesn't have a modern experience with a sudden, mass migration of this magnitude. While much of the immediate humanitarian response to Hurricane Katrina focuses on moving resources to the immediate area of the disaster, the migration of thousands of people to new locations on a semi-permanent basis is going to expose lots of important things about the nation's economy.
- Are the local economies to which those evacuees moved robust enough to handle the influx of hundreds, thousands, or in some cases, tens of thousands of people?
- With sudden spikes in demand for food and basic consumer goods (as in Dallas and Houston, where the number of evacuees is in the thousands), will there be local price shocks?
- How will those local areas adapt to the arrival of people with little or no savings or other capital?
- How long will it take to absorb the employable members of the migration into the job market?
- Will some cities and states prove capable at moving some of the evacuees into employment who were unemployed or underemployed at home in New Orleans or elsewhere in the region?
- How many of the evacuees will permanently relocate to the places they were resettled?