Gongol.com > Research > Economics > Stages of Economic Growth

Stages of Economic Growth
Brian Gongol

Giving Context to Abstract Measurements
It's difficult to comprehend the differences among nations' standards of living. We can read that China's per-capita GDP is around $5,000 per year, but there's rarely any context given to important figures measuring human development and prosperity.

One unfortunate consequence of this lack of context is that we as voters make decisions about issues like free trade and international migration without adequately comprehending the universe in which those decisions are made.

The following attempts to represent some of the major indicators of human economic development in a context that illustrates the United States' comparable development over the last century. Measurements like these are never precise, but taken together, they offer us a reasonable barometer of development.

Measures of Economic Development
Here, we compare a variety of measures of economic development for the world's 20 most populous nations to the same measures in United States history.

Populations of the World's 20 Most Populous Countries in Historical Context China 1,306,313,812 India 1,080,264,388 United States 295,734,134 US 1990 250,132,000 Indonesia 241,973,879 US 1980 227,726,000 US 1970 205,052,000 Brazil 186,112,794 US 1960 180,671,000 Pakistan 162,419,946 US 1950 152,271,000 Bangladesh 144,319,628 Russia 143,420,309 US 1940 132,122,000 Nigeria 128,771,988 Japan 127,417,244 US 1930 123,188,000 US 1920 106,461,000 Mexico 106,202,903 US 1910 92,407,000 Philippines 87,857,473 Vietnam 83,535,576 Germany 82,431,390 Egypt 77,505,756 US 1900 76,094,000 Ethiopia 73,053,286 Turkey 69,660,559 Iran 68,017,860 Thailand 65,444,371 France 60,656,178 Sources: Populations around 2003 US historical population

Per Capita Gross Domestic Product (Inflation-Adjusted to 2003 Dollars) United States $37,800 US 1990 $31,468 Japan $28,200 France $27,600 Germany $27,600 US 1980 $25,238 US 1970 $20,459 US 1960 $15,419 US 1950 $13,039 Mexico $9,000 Russia $8,900 US 1940 $8,705 Brazil $7,600 Thailand $7,400 US 1930 $7,155 Iran $7,000 Turkey $6,700 China $5,000 Philippines $4,600 Egypt $4,000 Indonesia $3,200 India $2,900 Vietnam $2,500 Pakistan $2,100 Bangladesh $1,900 Nigeria $900 Ethiopia $700 Sources: World per capita GDP estimates US historical GDP per capita, US CPI adjustment

Telephones (Mobile and Land-Line) Per Capita Germany 1.445 France 1.246 Japan 1.239 United States 1.151 Turkey 0.672 US 1990 0.522 US 1980 0.449 Mexico 0.415 China 0.407 Russia 0.370 Indonesia 0.369 Thailand 0.347 Iran 0.264 Brazil 0.249 Philippines 0.211 US 1950 0.197 Egypt 0.188 US 1940 0.114 US 1920 0.111 Vietnam 0.086 India 0.069 US 1910 0.056 US 1900 0.043 Pakistan 0.041 Nigeria 0.031 Bangladesh 0.015 Ethiopia 0.007 Sources: Global land-line telephone access, global mobile phone access US telephone access in 1900, US telephone access in 1910 and 1920, US telephone access in 1940, US telephone access in 1950, US telephone access in 1980, US telephone access in 1990

Life Expectancy at Birth, All Races, Both Sexes Japan 81.15 France 79.60 Germany 78.65 United States 77.71 US 1990 75.40 Mexico 75.19 US 1980 73.70 Turkey 72.36 China 71.96 Brazil 71.69 Thailand 71.57 Egypt 71.00 US 1970 70.80 Vietnam 70.61 Iran 69.96 Philippines 69.91 US 1960 69.70 Indonesia 69.57 US 1950 68.20 Russia 67.10 India 64.35 Pakistan 63.00 US 1940 62.90 Bangladesh 62.08 US 1930 59.70 US 1920 54.10 US 1910 50.00 Ethiopia 48.83 US 1900 47.30 Nigeria 46.74 Sources: Global life expectancies US historical life expectancies

Male Literacy Russia 100% France 99% Germany 99% Japan 99% US 1970 99% US 1960 98% United States 97% US 1950 97% US 1930 95% US 1920 94% Philippines 93% US 1910 92% Thailand 95% Mexico 94% US 1900 89% Vietnam 94% Brazil 86% China 95% Indonesia 93% Turkey 94% Iran 86% Nigeria 76% India 70% Egypt 68% Ethiopia 50% Bangladesh 54% Pakistan 60% Sources: Global literacy rates US literacy rates for 1900, 1910, 1920, 1930, 1950, 1960, US literacy rate for 1970

Female Literacy Russia 100% France 99% Germany 99% Japan 99% US 1970 99% US 1960 98% United States 97% US 1950 97% US 1930 95% US 1920 94% Philippines 93% US 1910 92% Thailand 91% Mexico 91% US 1900 89% Vietnam 87% Brazil 87% China 87% Indonesia 83% Turkey 79% Iran 73% Nigeria 61% India 48% Egypt 47% Ethiopia 35% Bangladesh 32% Pakistan 31% Sources: Global literacy rates US literacy rates for 1900, 1910, 1920, 1930, 1950, 1960, US literacy rate for 1970

Labor Force By Major Occupational Group Agriculture Industry Services Germany 1% 31% 68% Japan 1% 25% 73% United States 1% 26% 73% France 3% 24% 73% US 1990 3% 22% 75% US 1980 3% 27% 69% Mexico 4% 26% 70% US 1970 4% 32% 64% Russia 5% 35% 60% US 1960 8% 35% 57% Thailand 10% 44% 46% Brazil 10% 39% 51% Turkey 12% 30% 59% US 1950 12% 36% 52% Iran 13% 41% 46% Philippines 15% 32% 53% China 15% 53% 32% Indonesia 17% 44% 40% Egypt 17% 33% 50% US 1940 20% 33% 47% Bangladesh 22% 27% 52% Vietnam 22% 40% 39% US 1930 23% 31% 46% Pakistan 23% 24% 53% India 24% 28% 48% Nigeria 31% 44% 25% Ethiopia 46% 13% 41% Note: This metric, though imperfect, helps to indicate which nations are dependent upon labor-intensive, first-order production in order to feed themselves. As agriculture improves, it typically requires less labor, freeing those workers to build real economic growth rather than relying on subsistence. Sources: Global labor force categories US historical labor shares, agricultural vs. non-agricultural, US historical nonfarm labor shares, industry vs. services

Per-Capita Consumption of Electricity, in Kilowatt-Hours Per Year US 1990 12993 United States 12180 US 1980 9880 US 1970 8534 Japan 7567 France 6847 Germany 6148 Russia 5390 US 1960 4981 US 1950 2955 Brazil 1805 Mexico 1758 Iran 1704 Turkey 1616 US 1940 1514 Thailand 1389 China 1004 Egypt 903 US 1930 812 Philippines 479 US 1920 470 India 460 Pakistan 383 Indonesia 368 Vietnam 332 US 1910 271 Nigeria 113 Bangladesh 99 US 1900 66 Ethiopia 22 Sources: Global electricity consumption US historical electricity consumption

From these tables, we can extract a rough summary, approximating the comparable time period in US history to which each nation's development corresponds in the different categories measured.

Country	Pop	GDP	Telephones	Life Expectancy	Literacy (M)	Literacy (F)	Ag	Electricity
Bangladesh	1950	1930	1900	1940	1900	1900	1940	1910
Brazil	1970	1940	1980	1980	1900	1900	1960	1950
China	Now	1930	1980	1980	1900	1900	1950	1940
Egypt	1910	1930	1950	1980	1900	1900	1950	1940
Ethiopia	1900	1930	1900	1910	1900	1900	1930	1900
France	1900	1990	Now	Now	Now	Now	Now	1970
Germany	1910	1990	Now	Now	Now	Now	Now	1970
India	Now	1930	1920	1950	1900	1900	1930	1920
Indonesia	1990	1930	1980	1960	1900	1900	1950	1920
Iran	1900	1930	1980	1970	1900	1900	1950	1950
Japan	1940	1990	Now	Now	Now	Now	Now	1970
Mexico	1920	1950	1980	1990	1910	1910	1980	1950
Nigeria	1940	1930	1900	1900	1900	1900	1930	1910
Pakistan	1960	1930	1900	1950	1900	1900	1930	1920
Philippines	1910	1930	1980	1970	1920	1920	1950	1930
Russia	1950	1950	1980	1950	Now	Now	1970	1970
Thailand	1900	1940	1980	1980	1910	1910	1960	1940
Turkey	1900	1930	Now	1980	1900	1900	1960	1950
United States	Now	Now	Now	Now	1960	1960	Now	1990
Vietnam	1910	1930	1920	1970	1900	1900	1940	1920

Notes of Interest

• The United States has actually slipped in literacy performance since the 1960s
  
  
• China and India are both all over the map, which is troubling given their growing roles as trade and strategic competitors. China, for instance, has a relatively high life expectancy but literacy rates (especially for women) comparable only to the United States at the beginning of the century. India is well behind the US in virtually all measures, which makes it all the more intriguing to consider how jobs contracted to India by US tech firms are being absorbed and adapted to.
  
  
• Most Americans are vaguely aware of "poverty" in the Third World, but it's quite another thing to realize that Ethiopia, home to more people than France, is in an economic sense really comparable to the United States around the turn of the last century. It should be troubling both from a humanitarian sense and from a geostrategic sense. From a Golden Rule standpoint, people don't deserve strictly by chance of birth to live without access to many of the comforts of the developed world. Simultaneously, from a post-9/11 viewpoint, in a world of quick international transportation, terrorist orthodoxies, and weapons of mass destruction, it's important to have the foresight to realize where trouble may be brewing.
  
  

Conclusion
With these measures in mind, we can thoughtfully consider what policies are likely to bring about more efficient growth in the places where it is most needed. Those factors are widely addressed and debated within the economic community, but a few recurrent themes stand out:

• Rule of law
• Access to foreign markets for trade
• Stable monetary policy
• Widespread access to basic infrastructure and essential services, like education

Unfortunately, many activist "champions" of the world's poor are stridently, if not violently, opposed to many of the most important tools, especially stable monetary policy and access to trade. A real commitment to the improvement of many of the world's lives would benefit from a serious and fair evaluation of those factors leading to growth, not nonsense rhetoric about "exploitation" and violent protests.

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Gongol.com -- posted 4.6.2005